Heidelberg 1999 – scientific programme

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AKA: Arbeitskreis Physik und Abrüstung

AKA I: HV I

AKA I.1: Invited Talk

Thursday, March 18, 1999, 09:30–10:30, CH3

Nuclear Capabilities of India — •Mani V. Ramana — Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge MA, USA

India’s nuclear tests of May 1998 come at the end of several decades of effort at building up a nuclear program. While the initial rhetoric, and possibly the motivations, were largely about the peaceful uses of nuclear energy, the understanding that the infrastructure could be used for military purposes was always present, and guided some of the choices. During the early sixties three key events shaped the direction of the program, which resulted in India’s refusal to sign the Non Proliferation Treaty as well as the 1974 nuclear test. In the eighties, the missile program was started which resulted in the first set of missiles being inducted into the Indian military by the early nineties. The hardening of positions within the domestic debate during the mid-nineties, especially with the indefinite extension of the NPT, led to India’s voting against the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) in 1996. With the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party coming to power, and the sustained pressure from the weapons scientists, the stage was set for the tests of May 1998.

In the aftermath of the tests, India has expressed its willingness to sign the CTBT and participate in negotiations of the Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT). It has also introduced a resolution at the United Nations calling for de-alerting of nuclear weapons. While it is too early to predict how its new found enthusiasm for arms control measures, the results are likely to be strongly dependent on the internal debate within India. A growing peace/anti-nuclear movement is also likely to be important.