Leipzig 2002 – scientific programme

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AKA: Physik und Abrüstung

AKA 1: Nuklearwaffen-Abrüstung, Strategische Stabilität

AKA 1.2: Invited Talk

Thursday, March 21, 2002, 10:30–11:30, HS 11

U.S.-Russian Collaboration on Missile-Attack Early Warning: Reducing Dangers and Creating Opportunities — •Geoffrey Forden — Security Studies Program, MIT, Cambridge MA, USA

The world came close to unintended nuclear annihilation on at least four separate occasions because benign events were misinterpreted as possible missile attacks. In three of those cases, space-base early-warning sensors prevented military leaders from "retaliating" to perceived attacks by showing convincing evidence no missiles had been launched. In the fourth case, an inadequate early- warning satellite system nearly caused a nuclear war. Today, Russia’s economic woes have totally eliminated their capacity to detect missile launches from space, endangering the entire world.
The technologies either Russia or the United States uses, and the status of their systems, are closely guarded secrets. However, basic principles of physics can be used to determine the mostly likely capabilities of these systems. Furthermore, an analysis of the orbital motion of the satellites reveals the status of Russia’s space-based early-warning system. This talk will present a brief history of those incidents and the scientific detective story that revealed the poor state of Russia’s early-warning system. It will also discuss methods to help improve Russia’s early-warning system and how such collaboration can improve the nuclear stability in India and Pakistan.