Regensburg 2002 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 20: Mikro-ökonomische Modelle und Multi-Agenten-Systeme

AKSOE 20.1: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 14. März 2002, 16:00–16:30, H8

Dynamic Decision Behavior: Models and Experiments — •Dirk Helbing — Dresden University of Technology, Institute for Economics and Traffic, D-01062 Dresden

We will present dynamical models for decision making with and without temporal constraints [1]. These models take into account the non-transitive and probabilistic aspects of decisions, i.e. they reflect the observation that not always the decision with the highest utility or payoff is taken. The theory is compared with recent results of experimental games relevant to the route choice behavior of drivers. The adaptivity (‘group intelligence’) with respect to changing environmental conditions and unreliable information is very astonishing. Nevertheless, we find an intermittent dynamical reaction to aggregate information similar to volatility clusters in stock market data. It turns out that the decision behavior is not just driven by the potential gains in payoffs. To understand the findings, one has to consider individual learning. Our results are highly significant for predicting decision behavior and reaching the optimal distribution of behaviors by means of decision support systems. These results are practically relevant for any information service provider.

[1] D. Helbing: Quantitative Sociodynamics (Kluwer Academic, Dordrecht, 1995).