Dresden 2003 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 3: Postersitzung

AKSOE 3.17: Poster

Montag, 24. März 2003, 15:45–17:15, P1

Crystal growth as a model of opinion formation — •Jürgen Mimkes and Mario Hillebrand — Department Physik, Universität Paderborn

The model of complex structures is applied to socio-economic systems. Solid, liquid and gas in atomic systems correspond to collective hierarchy, individual democracy and global states in socio-economic systems. Opinion formation is equivalent to crystal growth. The direction (opinion) of one nucleus is expanding into the whole system. Crystal growth is only possible in the solid state. Accordingly, opinion formation is only possible in the collective hierarchic state. Liquids have no uniform order, and democratic structures like parliaments have no uniform opinions. However, under pressure a liquid may become solid, under pressure the fractions of a parliament may be forced to vote uniformly, under attack a democracy will turn to war, under pressure a company will turn to competition. The model simulates the evolution of binary decisions (opinions, crystal growth, battles of two armies or two companies). As a result we obtain either one uniform opinion (single crystal, winner) with many local dissidents (antisites) or several stable areas of different opinions (polycrystals, areas of influence) with a straight borderline (grain boundary). The simulation explains the long time stability of the two party system in the US as well as the party system in Germany. The model may be applied to elections, to opinion formation in politics, to peace talks or strikes, to markets and to every day life.