Dresden 2003 – scientific programme

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 5: Makro-ökonomische Modelle und Wirtschaftswachstum I

AKSOE 5.1: Talk

Tuesday, March 25, 2003, 14:00–14:30, BAR/205

Sustainable Social Economic Evolution of the Globalized Society, Part 1: Structure and Functionality of the whole Dynamic Model — •Ernst Welfonder and Thilo Frederking — Allmandring 5b, 70550 Stuttgart

For the investigation of the social economic and ecological effects concerning a sustainable further evolution of the globalized society a flexible supranational dynamic model has been developed. The model is hierarchically structured for being able to consider special national problems as detailed as necessary on the lower model levels and general supranational problems with correspondingly higher aggregation on the upper levels. Due to the functional structure of the model not only simulation studies are possible but also analytical investigations. This will be shown on the one hand by the influence of automation on reduced employment and on the other hand the diversified reasons for the momentum of the technical economic development are analyzed. Under additional regarding of the resources and environmental exploitation as well as of the growth of population it is shown that a further increase of these three integral acting influences inside of the strongly intermeshed social economic society can be lessened mainly by ecology improving global restrictions. The applied investigation is based on time dependent data series taken from world-wide existing statistic data banks.