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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 7: Makro-ökonomische Modelle und Wirtschaftswachstum II

AKSOE 7.3: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 26. März 2003, 15:00–15:30, BAR/205

Modeling the German energy market — •Dieter F. Ihrig — FH Suedwestfalen, Iserlohn, Germany

It would be helpful in political discussions to get quickly and transparent assessments of the consequences of political actions on the energy market of a national economy. For this reason a transparent model concerning the German energy market was written. The end energy consumption will be recorded in 4 sectors (households, low consumer, industries, traffic) and 4 service arrays (room heating, process heat, mechanical energy and light) specified for primary energy sources. To assess the primary energy requirement it is necessary to deal with more than 125 end primary energy consumption data each year. The model is based on data of the study-group of energy balances at the VDEW (Organization of German energy supplier). The data sets of the years 1993, 1997..2001 are available. It is possible to define over 40 years objectives on higher energy saving in the most service arrays of each end energy consumption sector. The effects on CO2-emission of several strategies of energy saving will be calculated including commercial data and socioeconomic aspects (investment, foreign trade, energy prizes, jobs etc.). The model is build by 45 EXCEL files including more than 400 work sheets.