Regensburg 2004 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 3: Postersitzung

AKSOE 3.12: Poster

Montag, 8. März 2004, 16:00–18:00, Poster D

The Probability of Traffic Violations and Criminal Acts: a Model of Agent Behavior — •Jürgen Mimkes — Physik Department Universität Paderborn

Traffic is a system of traffic agents under constraints of traffic laws. The system corresponds to atomic systems under constraint of energy laws. The Lagrange LeChatelier principle of statistics corresponds to Gibbs free energy and leads to a model of agent behavior. We always find three different kinds of agent behavior, corresponding to the solid, liquid and gas states of materials.

1.For a few rich, individual agents the probability of traffic violations is a Boltzmann distribution and depends on the punishment (in money) compared to income.

2.Most agents are less affluent individuals and the probability of traffic violations depends on the punishment and the risk of being caught.

3. For poor hierarchic agents the probability depends only on the hierarchic pressure.

In contrast to traffic violators criminal agents make a profit in criminal acts like bribing. This leads to a modified behavior of the second state: nearly every agent may be bribed, if the risk is low and the bribe is high enough compared to the punishment. However, no data are available, yet.