Regensburg 2004 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 3: Postersitzung

AKSOE 3.4: Poster

Montag, 8. März 2004, 16:00–18:00, Poster D

An Indication for Qualitative Change of Economic Relations at about 1985 for the USA — •Karl-Friedrich Albrecht¹, Werner Mende², and Dirk Orlamuender³ — ¹TU Dresden, Inst. f. Allg. Oekologie und Umweltschutz, Dozentur fuer Umweltsystemanalyse, Pienner Str. 8 , 01737 Tharandt — ²Berlin-Brandenburgische Akademie der Wissenschaften, Jaegerstr. 22-23, 10117 Berlin — ³TU Dresden, Lehrstuhl fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre insbes. Allokationstheorie, Mommsenstr. 13, 01062 Dresden

Because of the 2-nd law of thermodynamics the electricity consumption (EC) should be an important indicator for the economic growth of an industrialised country. Comparing the results on EC-growth with the GDP-growth (Gross Domestic Product) two remarkable facts have been found: (1) a linear relation between the EC and the GDP holds from 1955 to 1985 for the countries considered, (2) in 1973 when the growth of primary energy consumption decoupled from GDP growth the EC-growth started a strong coupling to the GDP growth. This has been reported earlier. The present question is: What is the reason for the two mentioned facts. To solve the question why the linear relation ends up at about 1985 the data for the USA have been analysed more in detail. The growth trend was determined by fitting the EC-data (up to 1981) by a growth model. In about 1985 both EC- and BIP-data leave this trend and indicate a qualitative new behavior. An other but connect fact is the approximate proportionality between EC and GDP starting in 1973. This leads to the question: What is the reason for a coupling between EC and GDP since the First World Energy Crisis?