Regensburg 2004 – scientific programme

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 7: Makro-ökonomische Modelle und Wirtschaftswachtum I

AKSOE 7.1: Talk

Wednesday, March 10, 2004, 14:00–14:30, H8

Stability and Dynamics of Regular and Random Supply Networks — •Dirk Helbing and Stefan Lämmer — TU Dresden, Institute for Economics and Traffic, Andreas-Schubert-Str. 23, 01062 Dresden

We investigate the stability and dynamic behavior of linear supply chains and supply networks of different topologies, including “supply circles”, “supply ladders”, and “supply hierarchies”. When the desired production rate is adapted to forecasted inventories rather than actual stock levels, the resulting equations turn out to be coupled sets of (damped) oscillator equations similar to those of electrical networks. Longer forcast time horizons τ have a stabilization effect. However, for a given supply matrix C, one normally cannot tune between unstable, damped, and overdamped behavior. Moreover, even in the damped case, one may face the “bull-whip effect”, according to which the oscillation amplitude is increased compared to the perturbations in the consumption rate. We will provide analytical solutions and discuss resonance phenomena in supply networks.