Regensburg 2004 – scientific programme

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 7: Makro-ökonomische Modelle und Wirtschaftswachtum I

AKSOE 7.3: Talk

Wednesday, March 10, 2004, 15:00–15:30, H8

A socio-economic model of the German energy market — •Dieter Ihrig — FH Suedwestfalen, Iserlohn, Germany

Last year a socio-economic model of the German energy market was presented. This model is improved: Depreciation of power plants is realized in a bookkeeper sense. The loss of jobs in the classic energy sector is calculated more realistic. The data base is actualized.

The model is based on data of the study-group of energy balances at the VDEW (Organization of German energy supplier). The end energy consumption will be recorded in 4 sectors (households, low consumer, industries, traffic) and 4 service arrays (room heating, process heat, mechanical energy and light) specified for primary energy sources. To assess the primary energy requirement it is necessary to deal with more than 125 end primary energy consumption data each year. It is possible to define over 40 years objectives on higher energy saving in the most service arrays of each end energy consumption sector. The effects on CO2-emission of several strategies of energy saving will be calculated including commercial data and socioeconomic aspects (investment, foreign trade, energy prizes, jobs etc.). The model is build by 45 EXCEL files including more than 400 corresponding work sheets.

A overview of the results of the model is given. A more detailed look of the ways of realization of the energy model is given.