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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 10: Social, Information and Production Networks I

AKSOE 10.4: Vortrag

Dienstag, 8. März 2005, 11:30–12:00, TU P-N203

Interaction Network Approach to Catastrophe Dynamics — •Christian Kühnert, Dirk Helbing, and Hendrik Ammoser — Institute for Transport & Economics, Dresden University of Technology

Catastrophes like the Weißeritz and Elbe flooding in 2002 or recent blackouts in the US and Italy exhibit a lot of domino-effects: one critical situation triggers another and therefore worsens the situation even more. These connected effects complicate accessing decisions in disaster management. They bear the risk that decisions are made which consider short-term effects only and neglect possible negative long-term consequences.

We describe the interdependencies between the sectors by an interaction network model. Analyses of former events allow to identify the network structures of different types of catastrophes. We simulate the temporal development of the catastrophe and evaluate the total effect on the system. This allows the disaster management to compare several options in fighting the catastrophe in advance and to choose the most suitable one.