Berlin 2005 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 2: Dynamics of Groups and Organizations II

AKSOE 2.1: Vortrag

Freitag, 4. März 2005, 14:00–14:30, TU P-N203

Modelling the population dynamics of agricultural societies — •Dieter F. Ihrig — FH Suedwestfalen, Iserlohn, Germany

The growth of populations are generally described by the theories of Maltus (only birth and dead rate) and Verhulst (calculates the maximum food production, too). In agricultural societies there are much more influences: Fertilisation is increased with the amount of food production. This leads to a positive feedback because the value of the soil increases. Reversible forms of non-agricultural soil use (for example settlement) and non-reversible loss of soil (for example pollution) lead to a negative feedback. These effects are modelled and results are shown. The meagre the soil is the lower is the use or loss stimulated by socio-economic processes. Assuming that growth of socio-economic insight are following the same mathematical laws then other growing processes such effects are modelled; first results are shown. It is tried to apply the found solutions to other socio-economic phenomena like stock exchange prices.