Dresden 2006 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 10: Poster Session (posters are expected to be displayed the full day 8:30-18:00)

AKSOE 10.35: Poster

Mittwoch, 29. März 2006, 16:00–18:00, P2

Analysis of dynamic processes on air traffic networks — •Marcus Rauhut¹ and Michael Schulz² — ¹marcus.rauhut@uni-ulm.de — ²michael.schulz@physik.uni-ulm.de

Many real networks present a bounded scale-free degree-distribution with connectivity cut-off due to physical constraints. Models of epidemics (susceptible-infected-susceptible and susceptible-infected-removed) exhibit an epidemic threshhold one order of magnitude smaller for bounded scale-free networks than for their homogeneous counterparts. Networks in air traffic have exactly, this bounded scale-free structure and are additionally well documentated. The extensive records of north-american air traffic make it therefore, besides the internet, an ideal subject to examine dynamic processes on networks. Furthermore, inefficiencies and delays in air-traffic can cause enormous costs, i.e. 1999 delays in the european air traffic caused damages to the EU-members of about 150 to 200 billion euros. Therefore exists also an economic interest in the better understanding of the interaction of topology and dynamics. In our work we investigate if delays can spread similiar to an epidemics behaviour on networks and try to forecast the development of delays with methods of non-equilibrium statistics, regarding the predicted growth of flight traffic in the future.