Dresden 2006 – scientific programme
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AKSOE: Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
AKSOE 10: Poster Session (posters are expected to be displayed the full day 8:30-18:00)
AKSOE 10.40: Poster
Wednesday, March 29, 2006, 16:00–18:00, P2
An agent-based modelling approach of Plague transmission: the SIMPEST prototype — •Dominique Badariotti1, Arnaud Banos2, Vincent Laperrière3, and Jean-Pierre Müller4 — 1dominique.badariotti@univ-pau.fr — 2arnaud.banos@univ-pau.fr — 3vincent_laperriere@yahoo.fr — 4jean-pierre.muller@cirad.fr
Since European settlers and traders brought plague to Madagascar, research on this re-emergent disease has been focusing on the main processes of transmission between the main host (rats) and humans via a vector, fleas. Although modalities of disease’ transmission at the individual level are now well known, the question of their control and reduction is far from being solved, due to the complexity of spatio-temporal patterns emerging at the population’s level. Therefore, it becomes crucial to improve our understanding of the functional relationships that link fleas, rats and humans. In such a perspective, we propose an agent-based prototype, SIMPEST, allowing running No-dqwhat-if scenariosNo-dq. Basically, rats, fleas and human agents are located on a spatial grid that represents a village and its surrounding land. Demographic dynamics of the three populations are introduced. Every population is characterized by a life expectancy and a reproductive rate that govern individuals’ birth and death. Then, agents move according to their own goals, in a dynamic environment (seasonal flooding of rice fields and crops are integrated).We will then present this prototype, developed using Netlogo, before highlighting the first results obtained on specific scenarios. Finally, we will focus on a strategy we retained to analyze the behaviour of the model, based on a systematic combination of its main parameters.