Regensburg 2007 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie

AKE 2: Climate Change I – The Fourth IPCC Report

AKE 2.1: Hauptvortrag

Montag, 26. März 2007, 16:00–16:45, H45

Human Induced Climate Change: The IPCC Fourth Assessment — •Bill Hare — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg A31, P.O. Box 601203, D-14412 Potsdam

The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report on the physical basis of climate change, to be concluded in Paris in February 2007, provides a new benchmark for the projected effects of human activities on the climate system. Significant improvements in understanding and attributing observed climate system changes, particularly at the regional level, have occurred in the 6 years since the Third Assessment Report was concluded in 2001. Uncertainties in the climate sensitivity and in radiative forcing from aerosols and other climate forcing agents have narrowed since the last assessment. Improvements in projections of global and regional changes in climate and extremes have also been substantial and are briefly reviewed. Projection of sea level rise has been and remains one of the most uncertain elements for the future and the gap between projections from continental ice sheet models and the recent behaviour of the ice sheets (Greenland and Antarctica) remains an area of active research and consequential uncertainty.