Berlin 2008 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKSOE: Arbeitskreis Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 12: Dynamics of groups and organizations IV

AKSOE 12.5: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 27. Februar 2008, 16:45–17:15, EW 203

Some key properties of the German soccer league: a model-free time series analysis — •Andreas Heuer and Oliver Rubner — Inst. f. Phys. Chemie, Corrensstr. 30, 48149 Münster

In recent years several complex models have been devoloped to characterize the outcome of sports leagues in the course of a season. The final interpretation usually depends strongly on model assumptions. In this work we analyse a large database of 40 years of results in the German soccer league (1. Bundesliga). Therefrom interesting questions can be answered without resorting to any models: (1) How do the team fitnesses change during a season and from season to season? Many models assume a random walk-type behavior of a team fitness during one season. (2) Are offensive or defensive abilities more relevant for a successful outcome? (3) Do series of wins or losses exist beyond statistical fluctuations? Answering the last question involves ideas, originating from multidimensional NMR experiments and gives rise to interesting psychological insight into professional soccer.