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AKSOE: Arbeitskreis Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AKSOE 3: Financial Markets and Risk Management I

AKSOE 3.5: Vortrag

Montag, 25. Februar 2008, 12:15–12:45, EW 203

Predicting employment and pension levels for the G7 and China — •Hans Danielmeyer and Thomas Martinetz — Institute of Neuro- and Bioinformatics, Universität Bremen, Germany

The fundamental uncertainty of employment and pension policy was so far the lack of long term theories for the demand of the home floor, the productivity of the factory floor, and the return on investment. Our analytically closed solutions for both floors and available data from the life insurance business allow designing sustainable pension systems. For G7 level nations (1.3 bn people) in 2100 the mean life expectancy will be 105 years, and we predict a working time of 24 hours per week (60 years/48 hours before WWII, 45 years/96 hours at the start of the industrial society). A new method distributing paid work for sustainable pension systems must be found immediately. An exclusive (no intergeneration transfer) and collective pension fund controlling directly 33 per cent of the capital market will require an increase of the retirement age to 80 by 2100. The corresponding trade off depends only on the pension level as percentage of average income (40 per cent in the above example). China (1.4 bn people) will be in a comparable position in 2040-50.