Berlin 2008 – scientific programme

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 17: Poster I

DY 17.41: Poster

Tuesday, February 26, 2008, 16:00–18:00, Poster C

External noises effects on the spatiotemporal characterization of ensemble prediction systems — •Jorge Revelli, Miguel Rodriguez, and Horacio Wio — Instituto de FIsica de Cantabria, Santander, Spain

We investigate the effects of an external noise applied to anextended chaotic system. The chosen model is the Lorenz '96. The system is subjected to temporal and spatiotemporal perturbations. To approach to climate problems the studied system is characterized by three main components. A control, ensemble and reality trajectories. Ensemble trajectories are the result of applying perturbations on the initial conditions to the control. The reality evolution is independent of the control trajectory.

We analyze the fluctuations obtained as differences between each member of the ensemble and the control trajectory and between control and reality trajectories. We use the MVL (Mean Variance of Logarithms) diagrams to represent the interplay and evolution of the fluctuations moments.

With the Talagrand diagram we check where the evolution of a given trajectory usually falls with respect to the ensemble data ordered in a predetermined way.

In this work we study the similarities and differences between these two methods of characterize spatiotemporal evolutions in systems subjected to different ways of applying the external noise to the system. The aim is to establish correspondences between them.