Darmstadt 2008 – scientific programme

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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 1: Atmosphäre und Klima

UP 1.7: Talk

Tuesday, March 11, 2008, 10:00–10:15, 3B

Long-term scenarios for road transport's greenhouse gas emissions — Heike Steller and •Jens Borken — Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. (DLR) in der Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft, Verkehrsstudien, Rutherfordstr. 2, 12489 Berlin

Scenarios for road transport's emissions have been developed as a consistent interpretation of the four IPCC-SRES marker scenarios for the first time. Emissions of CO2, CH4, NMHC, CO, NOx, SO2, PM, BC and OC are calculated for 2025, 2050 and 2100. Our bottom-up approach is differentiated by vehicle categories and fuel types for passenger and freight transport each. Thus, we present here most comprehensive road transport's data for the whole globe, by world region and by country with a grid resolution of 1° longitude by 1° latitude.

In all scenarios global road transport's CO2 emissions continue to increase up to 2050 while global emissions of other substances decrease latest from 2020 on. Strong transport and emission growth occurs in all developing regions while OECD regions may stabilize or decrease their emissions from high levels. The range between scenarios indicates considerable impact of economic and demand growth as well as technical measures. For instance in Western Europe, CO2 emissions may decrease by as little as 70 Mt or as much as 350 Mt from 2000 to 2050. In the same period CO2 emissions in South Asia increase at least by 200 Mt and maybe as much as 1000 Mt.