Dresden 2009 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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AGSOE: Arbeitsgruppe Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
AGSOE 5: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Dynamics
AGSOE 5.3: Vortrag
Montag, 23. März 2009, 16:45–17:15, BAR 205
Cointegration of output, capital, labor, and energy — •Robert Stresing1,2 and Reiner Kümmel2 — 1Institute of Physics, University of Oldenburg, Germany — 2Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Würzburg, Germany
Standard economic theory assumes that the markets of the production factors capital, labor, and energy operate in an equilibrium state, where the cost share of each production factor is equal to its output elasticity, which reflects its productive power. According to this assumption, the role of energy as a production factor is marginal, because it only accounts for five per cent of the total factor costs.
We apply cointegration analysis to the linear combinations of the time series of (the logarithms of) output, capital, labor, and energy for Germany, Japan, and the USA since 1960. The computed cointegration vectors represent the output elasticities of the aggregate energy-dependent Cobb-Douglas function. We find that they are for labor much smaller and for energy much larger than the cost shares of these factors. These findings disagree strongly with standard economic theory, but support results obtained with heterodox LINEX production functions.
Our results elucidate the forces behind the pressure towards increasing automation and unemployment, and question the concept of "neoclassical equilibrium" as well as influential analyses of the economic impacts of climate change based on standard economic theory.
Ref.: R. Stresing, D. Lindenberger, R. Kümmel, "Cointegration of output, capital, labor, and energy", Eur. Phys. J. B 66, 279-287 (2008)