Dresden 2009 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGSOE: Arbeitsgruppe Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

AGSOE 9: Economic Models and Evolutionary Game Theory I

AGSOE 9.1: Vortrag

Dienstag, 24. März 2009, 14:00–14:30, BAR 205

Predicting social systems — •Eckehard Olbrich, Nils Bertschinger, and Jürgen Jost — Max Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany

Predicting social systems can, unlike in natural systems, evoke reactions that affect the predicted outcome. One well-known example are the so called "Self fulfilling prophecies". We analyze this phenomenon in a game theoretic setting. In a game with uncertainty an additional player is introduced who can ask the players before the actual game about their intentions and is interested in a prediction being as good as possible. We analyze under which conditions this modification introduce new equilibria to the game and discuss possible applications such as election polls or analyst forecasts.

Finally it is discussed to which extent the explanation of "self-fulfilling prophecies" has to take into account not only strategic interactions as it is formalized in the game theoretic approach, but also cognitive aspects, such as the framing of the situation.