Hamburg 2009 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 1: Verification, Space Surveillance and Early Warning

AGA 1.3: Talk

Wednesday, March 4, 2009, 15:30–16:00, VMP 9 HS

Constellations of a possible European Missile Early Warning System — •Marcel Dickow¹ and Geoffrey Forden² — ¹Institut für Friedensforschung u. Sicherheitspolitik (IFSH), Hamburg, Germany — ²Science, Technology and Global Security Working Group, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, USA

Missile early warning systems played (and still play) an important role in the concept of nuclear deterrence during the cold war. Providing intelligence and surveillance data space-based sensors guaranteed capabilities of both parties to initiate a retaliation strike before own ICBMs would have been destroyed. Together with submarine second strike capability missile early warning was a major security asset both parties agreed on to be necessary for political stabilization.

As the now Russian system struggles with financial obstacles the U.S. system components have been partly integrated into the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) providing not only reconnaissance but Space Situational Awareness (SSA) data for civil and military purposes. A European Missile Early Warning System with global coverage is not a topic in national or EU space policies. However ESA and the European Defence Agency (EDA) drive SSA programs and the European space industry recently proposed missile early warning systems, mostly to spur on discussion.

The talk investigates possible constellation for these systems using visible and infrared surveillance, presents deliberations on coverage, detection times and probabilities and pulls together political implications for European policies and international security.