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T: Fachverband Teilchenphysik

T 27: Andere Gebiete der Theorie

T 27.2: Vortrag

Freitag, 19. März 2010, 14:15–14:30, HG XIII

What is the Probability of the Higgs Boson Discovery? — •Alexander Unzicker — Pestalozzi-Gymnasium München

The standard model of particle physics requires the existence of the Higgs boson which provides a mechanism for the appearance of masses. Its detection is one of the most important goals of high energy physics, and enormous efforts have been undertaken at Tevatron and specially at the Large Hadron Collider.

But how sure can we be that the Higgs exits at all? At such controversial questions, the German philosopher Immanuel Kant recommended a bet, and nowadays this can be realized using online prediction markets like Intrade.com. Such platforms have been proven useful for giving estimates of unknown probabilities, and the application for evaluating scientific research is discussed in general. See also arXiv:0912.0443.