Regensburg 2010 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 13: Networks: From Topology to Dynamics I (with BP, DY)

SOE 13.5: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 24. März 2010, 11:15–11:30, H44

Stochastic load-redistribution model for cascading failures in interconnected systems — •Jörg Lehmann and Jakob Bernasconi — ABB Switzerland Ltd., Corporate Research, Segelhofstrasse 1K, CH-5405 Baden-Dättwil, Switzerland

We present a new class of stochastic models for cascading failure propagation in interconnected systems [1]. These models take into account, in a statistical sense, important physical characteristics of realistic load-redistribution mechanisms: (i) the load increments after a failure depend on the load of the failing element; (ii) the failed load is redistributed non-uniformly among the remaining elements. Within a Markov approximation, we are able to describe the cascading failure dynamics of these models in terms of a generalized branching process. This yields an analytical solution for the breakdown probability in the limit of large system sizes. The application to blackouts in power grids is discussed.

[1] J. Lehmann and J. Bernasconi, arXiv:0909.4185.