Regensburg 2010 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 14: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Dynamics III

SOE 14.4: Talk

Wednesday, March 24, 2010, 14:45–15:00, H44

Climate Change and Societal Instability: Modeling Conflict and Cooperation of Agents in Complex Social Networks — •Jürgen Scheffran — Institut für Geographie, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg, Bundesstr.53, 20146 Hamburg

Global warming has significant potential implications for security and conflict. Various studies suggest that climate change aggravates environmental degradation and resource scarcity which may contribute to environmental conflicts and mass migrations. On the other hand, more cooperation may emerge to address the problems and risks. This contribution analyses the potential for climate-induced societal instabilities within a conceptual framework of conflict and cooperation of multiple agents in complex social networks. A macro-level analysis of regional impacts of climate change will be integrated with micro-level analysis of potential environmental conflicts and the possibility of cooperation and coalition formation to address the challenges, with a focus on regional cases in the Mediterranean region.