Regensburg 2010 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 15: Financial Markets and Risk Management I
SOE 15.2: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 24. März 2010, 16:30–17:00, H44
Some considerations on portfolios built by agents with insufficient information — Uli Spreitzer1 and •Vladimir Reznik2 — 1Bonus Pensionskassen AG, Traungasse 14-16, 1030 Vienna, Austria — 2Watson Wyatt Heissmann GmbH, Abraham-Lincoln-Str. 22, 65189 Wiesbaden, Germany
In the well known CAPM model [1] and the standard optimization the portfolio is optimized with some optimization process, e.g. rate of return minus volatility. How good this can be done, depends on how well informed agents on these assets are. Assuming a market of two agents, who assume wrong assumptions of the assets - nevertheless both agents together are in accordance with the market - we investigate the portfolios, being built from these wrong assumptions. Assuming, that the two agents represent a market, we investigate this wrong portfolio of the market compared to a portfolio, which is built (according to CAPM and ) using correct assumptions on the assets. We will investigate these portfolios in dependence from, how wrong assumptions of this agents are. We will expand the results for two utility functions, one using a coherent and one a non coherent measure of risk. Some examples for pension funds of year 2008 and 2009 will ge given, also. [1] Sharpe, W.F.: Capital Asset Prices: A Theory of Market Equilibrium under conditions of risk. The Journal of finance. Vol. 19. p. 425ff, 1964