Regensburg 2010 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 6: Poster Session

SOE 6.7: Poster

Montag, 22. März 2010, 18:00–20:00, Poster C

Infectious diseases on livestock trade networks — •Hartmut Lentz^{1, 2}, Thomas Selhorst², and Igor M. Sokolov¹ — ¹Humboldt University, Berlin — ²Federal Research Institute for Animal Health, Wusterhausen

The spread of animal diseases is encouraged by trading of livestock. This might cause enormous economic losses. In Germany, veterinary authorities are obliged to report every movement of pigs to the central database (HI-Tier database). The database contains a network of all holdings belonging to the pork chain of production consisting of about 120.000 holdings (nodes) and and 3.5 million trade transactions. This yields a static weighted and directed network with about 300.000 edges. The geographical proximity between all holdings is known and can be used to model the disease spread by e.g. rodents. The dynamic of the spread of infectious diseases on networks is still not well understood. It is commonly investigated using stochastic agent based models. In these models it is difficult to obtain an understanding of the disease on a global level. To address this problem we introduce a time continuous SIR model and investigate its solutions. We consider the temporal behavior of the total number of infected and their dispersal.