Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 2: Climate, Energy, and Security

AGA 2.1: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 16. März 2011, 18:00–18:30, BEY 81

Assessing the Security Implications of Climate Change and Climate Engineering — •Jürgen Scheffran and P. Michael Link — ZMAW, KlimaCampus, Universität Hamburg

Recent studies suggest that increasing greenhouse gas emissions could generate various security risks (water scarcity, food insecurity, flood and storm disasters, environmental refugees) that in turn increase the likelihood of violent conflicts and social instabilities in the most affected climate hot spots, making climate change a possible threat multiplier. Suggested mitigation and adaptation measures to prevent or manage such risks could have security implications as well, including nuclear power and large-scale renewable energy production. A new dimension is added to the spectrum of security implications when applying climate engineering as an attempt to stabilize the climate system despite an ineffective mitigation policy, raising difficult questions concerning the relationship between planetary management and regional impacts. To facilitate a comparative assessment of the various consequences, a framework is presented to analyze the risk pathways of climate change and response strategies as well as governance mechanisms for risk reduction and conflict prevention.