Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 15: ISPS Intersectional Poster Session

DY 15.5: Poster

Dienstag, 15. März 2011, 18:00–20:00, P1

Extreme value statistics in the solar wind: an application to correlated Levy processes — •Nicholas Moloney — Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Noethnitzer Str. 38, 01187 Dresden, Germany

We analyze the block maxima of solar wind power bursts during 2000 -- 2007. Extreme values over time windows of about 18 hours and longer can be accurately described by parametric generalized extreme value statistics. These models predict that significantly larger values can be expected during any 50-year period than observed to date.