Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 10: Focus Session: Experimental Methods

SOE 10.1: Hauptvortrag

Dienstag, 15. März 2011, 13:30–14:00, GÖR 226

Complex Economic Systems in the Laboratory — •Cars Hommes — University of Amsterdam, Netherlands

Expectations and learning play a key role in complex economic systems. In this talk we survey learning to forecast experiments (LtFEs) with human subjects to test theories of expectations and learning. Subjects must repeatedly forecast a market price, whose realization is an aggregation of individual expectations. Emphasis is given to how individual forecasting rules interact at the micro level and which structure they co-create at the aggregate, macro level. In particular, we focus on the question wether the evidence from laboratory experiments is consistent with heterogeneous expectations in complex economic systems.