Dresden 2011 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 11: Poster Session

SOE 11.4: Poster

Tuesday, March 15, 2011, 18:05–18:45, P2

Epidemiological investigation of time-dependent complex networks — •Mario Konschake¹, Hartmut H K Lentz^{1, 2}, and Thomas Selhorst¹ — ¹Friedrich-Loeffler-Institut, Institute of Epidemiology, Seestr. 55, 16868 Wusterhausen, Germany — ²Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Newtonstr. 15, 12489 Berlin, Germany

The trade of live animals is a major route of infection. Therefore, in Germany every movement of live pigs is registered in the HI-Tier database. These data (121.287 premises with 3.5 million trade connections) form a special case of a time-dependent network with heavy-tail degree distribution and community structure [1].

We investigate the maximum size of epidemic as a function of infection date and infectious period. A threshold behavior for the infectious period and a strong dependency on the date of infection is found.

Furthermore, a confinement of epidemics to communities can be shown. Our results show that structure and time dependency are integral to the epidemiological investigation of real-world networks.

[1] Lentz, H.H.K., et al., Trade communities and their spatial patterns in the German pork production network. PREVET (2010), doi:10.1016/j.prevetmed.2010.10.011