Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 15: Economic Models and Evolutionary Game Theory I (with BP, DY)
SOE 15.1: Vortrag
Mittwoch, 16. März 2011, 14:00–14:15, GÖR 226
When does a professional foul in soccer pay off? — •Metin Tolan — Fakultät Physik, TU Dortmund, metin.tolan@tu-dortmund.de
In soccer, a professional foul is a deliberate act of foul play to prevent an opponent’s goal. Such a professional foul is punished by a mandatory red card and the team is thus reduced by one player for the rest of the time. This reduction in the number of players obviously reduces the performance of the team. However, if this reduction happens during the last minute of the game it is almost certain that it pays off since the opponent will not score two goals or more in the remaining time. On the other hand, if the professional foul happens in the first minute then it is likely that the opponent scores more than one goal in the 89 minutes to follow since it is a game 11 vs. 10 for a rather long time. Therefore, there must be a certain minute tpf so that a professional foul pays off for t > tpf and not for t < tpf. This minute will be calculated with a simple model based on the scoring rates of professional soccer teams. The result will be discussed and compared with famous actual and past professional fouls.