Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 15: Economic Models and Evolutionary Game Theory I (with BP, DY)

SOE 15.2: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 16. März 2011, 14:15–14:30, GÖR 226

Rating Team Strength in Soccer Leagues by Elo Numbers — •Oliver Rubner and Andreas Heuer — Institute of Physical Chemistry, University of Muenster, Germany

Measuring the relative performance in sports where opponents are playing matches against each other is a diffcult and often unsatisfactory task. This is mainly due to the restricted number of matches played and the influence of chance on the outcome of each match. In many sports there is a system of points which are attributed to the teams according to a won, lost or draw match. From these points a table is constructed that should reflect the relative fitnesses of the teams. These approaches are by no means unique and often simlpy historically motivated. An example where the ranking follows a mathematically elaborate computational scheme is the Elo ranking in chess[1]. The key of this scheme is the computation of a win probability function from the so called Elo number which is changed after every match by taking into account the relative strength of the opponent. In this scheme enter two or three parameters which need to be determined.

We will present an iterative procedure to determine the win probability function for soccer leagues and derive a method to compare different measures of team strength such as Elo numbers, points or goal differences.

[1] Elo, Arpad, The Rating of Chessplayers, Past and Present, Arco Pub. 1978.