Dresden 2011 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 9: Foundations and Perspectives of Climate Engineering (with AKE and UP)

SOE 9.4: Hauptvortrag

Dienstag, 15. März 2011, 12:00–12:30, HSZ 01

The gamble with the climate - an experiment — •Manfred Milinski — Max-Planck-Institut für Evolutionsbiologie, Thienemann-Str. 2a, 24306 Plön

Will a group of people reach a collective target through individual contributions when everybody suffers individually if the target is missed? This *collective risk social dilemma* exists in various social scenarios, the globally most challenging one being the prevention of dangerous climate change. Reaching the collective target requires individual sacrifices, with benefits to all but no guarantee that others will also contribute. It even seems tempting to contribute less and save money to induce others to contribute more, hence the dilemma and the risk of failure. Here, we introduce the collective risk social dilemma and simulate it in a controlled experiment: will a group of people reach a fixed target sum through successive monetary contributions, when they know that they will lose all their remaining money with a certain probability if they fail to do so? We find that under high risk of simulated dangerous climate change half of the groups succeed in reaching the target sum, whereas the others only marginally fail. When the risk of loss is only as high as the necessary average investment or even lower, the groups generally fail to reach the target sum. We conclude that one possible strategy to relieve the collective risk dilemma in high risk situations is to convince people that failure to invest enough is very likely to cause grave financial loss to the individual. Our analysis describes the social window humankind has to prevent dangerous climate change.