Berlin 2012 – scientific programme

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AGA: Arbeitsgruppe Physik und Abrüstung

AGA 2: Missiles, Missile Defense, and Disarmament

AGA 2.4: Talk

Thursday, March 29, 2012, 12:00–12:45, A 151

3rd World Missiles * The Puzzle Comes Together Assessments and Revelations in the Past 15 Years — Markus Schiller and •Robert Schmucker — Schmucker Technologie Präsident des Internationalen Förderkreises Raumfahrt (e.V.) Klenzestrasse 14 D-80469 München

For more than 25 years, North Korea is considered as the 3rd World*s leading developer, producer and supplier of ballistic missiles. This assessment was firmly established in 1998 at the latest in this year, North Korea attempted a satellite launch, and a Medium Range Ballistic Missile (Nodong/Ghauri/Shahab 3) of North Korean origin was presented in Pakistan and Iran. However, a closer look on these events should have called the North Korean capabilities into question. Doubts were voiced for the first time at the 12th Multinational Conference on Theater Missile Defense in Scotland in 1999. Nonetheless, the widespread assessment that North Koreas missile program was a sophisticated global threat became a "well known truth". The same happened with assessments of missile programs in Iran and other countries. Over the past decade, an increasing amount of information on these programs became available. This data should have increased the doubts on the common view of the mentioned missile threats, but it was widely ignored. A new research effort finally yielded decisive results in 2011. Important pieces of the puzzle are now known, and the puzzle of 3rd World ballistic missile programs eventually comes together.