Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie

AKE 13: Erneuerbare Energie: Solarenergie und Integration

AKE 13.8: Vortrag

Mittwoch, 28. März 2012, 18:45–19:00, EW 201

Sustainable Growth Potential of Photovoltaic Systems in a Global Perspective — •Christian Breyer — Reiner Lemoine Institut gGmbH, Ostendstr. 25, 12459 Berlin

The photovoltaic (PV) energy technology has the potential to contribute to the global energy supply on a large scale. This potential can only be realised if sustainable and highly competitive PV economics are achieved. An integrated economic PV market potential assessment is presented consisting of grid-parity and fuel-parity analyses for the on-grid markets and an amortization analysis for rural off-grid PV markets. All analyses are mainly driven by cost projections based on the experience curve approach and growth rates for PV systems and electricity and fossil fuel prices for the currently used power supply. A total economic PV market potential of 2,800 GW to 4,300 GW is derived for the year 2020. 600 GW to 1,600 GW of cumulated installed PV capacity is estimated for the year 2020, depending on scenario assumptions. In conclusion, PV is on its way to become a highly competitive energy technology.