Berlin 2012 – scientific programme

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BP: Fachverband Biologische Physik

BP 18: Posters: Statistical Physics in Biological Systems

BP 18.32: Poster

Wednesday, March 28, 2012, 17:30–19:30, Poster A

Predictability of evolution depends nonmonotonically on population size — •Ivan G. Szendro¹, Jasper Franke¹, J. Arjan G.M. de Visser², and Joachim Krug Krug¹ — ¹Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of Cologne, Germany — ²Laboratory of Genetics, Wageningen University, The Netherlands

We study Wright-Fisher dynamics on an empirical 8-locus fitness landscape (FL) obtained experimentally for the filamentous fungus Aspergillus Niger. In order to measure predictability, we define entropy measures on the observed paths. We find a non monotonic dependance of the entropy on population sizes, N, for fixed mutation rates, µ. The initial decrease of entropy and the subsequent increase, for ever larger N, are governed by the scales Nµ and Nµ², respectively, and the amplitude of this pattern is determined by the magnitude of µ. We also study the departure from the strong selection weak mutation regime, when increasing N, for the probability of the largest subpopulation to end up on the wild type genotype. To show that our observations are generic, we compare our findings for the experimental FL with data obtained on a simple model landscape.