Berlin 2012 – scientific programme
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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 28: Data Analysis Methods and Modelling of Geophysical Systems
DY 28.9: Talk
Thursday, March 29, 2012, 17:00–17:15, MA 144
Early warning signals: a generalised modelling approach — •Steven Lade1 and Thilo Gross1,2 — 1Max Planck Institute for the Physics of Complex Systems, Dresden, Germany — 2Department of Engineering Mathematics, University Of Bristol, United Kingdom
Critical transitions, here defined as sudden and difficult to reverse changes of state that are often associated with bifurcations, occur in many systems in nature and society such as ecology, physiology, climate, and economies. Given the often catastrophic nature of these transitions, some warning of these transitions is highly desirable. Over the last decade a number of such early warning signals have been proposed based on simple analyses of time series data, for example an increasing variance or increasing autocorrelation.
These methods, however, can be limited by the amount of data they require. In this talk I will propose a new method that significantly reduces the amount of data required. It is based on combining multiple types of time series data with system-specific structural knowledge through the framework of a generalised model. I apply the method to two ecological examples, including the simulated collapse of a fishery.