Berlin 2012 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 10: Social Systems, Opinion and Group Dynamics I

SOE 10.4: Talk

Tuesday, March 27, 2012, 14:45–15:00, H 0110

Towards the optimum prediction of soccer matches: concepts and limits — •Andreas Heuer and Oliver Rubner — Institut f. Phys. Chemie, WWU Münster, 48149 Münster

For an optimum prediction of soccer matches several key questions have to be answered. (1) What is the information content of different observables (previous results, chances for goals, home strength, market value of players, ...) about the quality of a team and how can this information content be defined? (2) How do these pieces of information transform into the explicit prediction of soccer matches? (3) How important are random, i.e. non-predictable, contributions? (4) How to define an optimum prediction on a solid statistical basis? Answers to these questions will be presented. It can be shown, that the predictions, based on the above-mentioned observables, are close but still slightly below the limit of optimum predictability. These concepts are applied to the Bundesliga season 2011/12 where the probabilities (and their statistical uncertainties) for all teams to reach a specific goal (Champions League, Europa League, avoiding relegation), based on the then available knowledge in March 2012, are calculated.