Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 21: Economic Models and Evolutionary Game Theory II

SOE 21.5: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 29. März 2012, 16:30–16:45, H 0110

Fundamental proof of S-functional trade-offs in long term economic growth — •Hans Danielmeyer and Thomas Martinetz — Institut für Neuro- und Bioinformatik, Uni Lübeck

There is only one and the same time passing by. Either mankind produces more with more working time, or has more spare time at home for enjoying whatever is produced. In three lines of straight physics we show that just this fundamental trade-off leads to the observed S-functional growth and to inevitable final trade offs between the per capita quantities and their growth rates: increasing annual output (GDP, G7 current mean at 30.000 € p. a. per capita) with decreasing growth rate since 1950, and increasing national wealth (physical capital PC, G7 current mean 120.000 € p.c.) with decreasing growth rate. Not knowing anything about these trade-offs caused the accumulation of public debt, private fortunes, and the banking disaster with surplus investment capital.

There are still no adjustable parameters, just the national saving constant and three constants of the human species. Easily measurable time shifts between the normalized national pairs of GDP and PC confirm the effective lifetime of the destructible PC (25 years according to EU's Central Bank) and the existence of a second but per capita indestructible storable quantity with a lifetime of 62 years. They correspond to national recoveries and the collective industrial evolution.