Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 8: Focus Session: Models of War and Conflict

SOE 8.2: Hauptvortrag

Dienstag, 27. März 2012, 10:00–10:30, H 0110

Modeling Wars and Terrorism: From particles to people — •Neil Johnson — Physics Dept., University of Miami, Florida, U.S.A.

I attempt to bridge the gap between simple particle-like models which have been recently used by mathematical scientists to describe the kinetics of insurgent conflicts and terrorist activity and the complex reality of real-world scenarios in which social, cultural and behavioral aspects play a crucial role in the underlying decision-making at the level of both individuals and groups. Using empirical data from a wide variety of modern insurgent conflicts and terrorist events, I attempt to describe the evolution -- and possible turning points -- of such collective human engagement in terms of the heterogeneity of the actors, and the bounded rationality under which each decision is made. This work builds upon our earlier efforts [1,2].

Funding provided by HSCB ONR Grant N000141110451

[1] Juan Camilo Bohorquez et al. Nature 462, 911 (2009); Neil Johnson et al. Science 333, 81 (2011); Zhenyuan Zhao et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 103, 148701 (2009); Blazej Ruszczycki et al. Eur. Phys. Jour. 72, 289 (2009)

[2] Neil F. Johnson, "Escalation, timing and severity of insurgent and terrorist events: Toward a unified theory of future threats" arXiv:1109.2076