Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm
Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Aktualisierungen | Downloads | Hilfe
SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 8: Focus Session: Models of War and Conflict
SOE 8.3: Vortrag
Dienstag, 27. März 2012, 10:30–11:00, H 0110
Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Violence in Jerusalem — •Karsten Donnay1, Dirk Helbing1, Dan Miodownik2, and Ravi Bhavnani3 — 1Sociology, Modeling and Simulation, ETH Zurich, Switzerland — 2Department of Political Science, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Israel — 3Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies, Geneva, Switzerland
Studies of conflict severity and timing have featured prominently in Nature [1] and Science [2]; employing techniques adopted from Physics these studies underscore the importance of quantitative approaches for the understanding of conflicts at large. The case analyzed here, the city of Jerusalem, is arguably among the most contested urban spaces in the world. After a sharp decline in violence following the end of the second Intifada in 2004, increasing tensions between Israeli security forces and both Palestinian and Ultra-Orthodox residents have led to a steady increase of violence in recent years. While the literature on Jerusalem is extensive, patterns of violence in the city have not been studied in detail. Our analysis of a rich data set of violent events for the period 2001-2009 reveals clear differences in inter-group violence dynamics, spatial/temporal clustering and severity between the Intifada and post-Intifada period. We can further isolate hot spots of violence and lend support to the argument that both retaliatory dynamics and the symbolic significance of certain parts of Jerusalem play an important role in defining when and where violence ensues. References: [1] JC Bohorquez et al. Nature 462: 911-914 (2009) [2] N Johnson et al. Science 333: 81-84 (2011)