Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 9: Energy and Environment
SOE 9.5: Vortrag
Dienstag, 27. März 2012, 12:15–12:30, H 0110
Applying Stochastic Small-Scale Damage Functions to German Winter Storms — •Boris Prahl1, Diego Rybski1, Jürgen Kropp1, Olaf Burghoff3, and Held Hermann1,2 — 1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany — 2University of Hamburg, Germany — 3Gesamverband der Deutschen Versicherungswirtschaft (GDV), Berlin, Germany
Analyzing insurance loss data we derive stochastic storm damage functions for residential buildings. On district scale we find power law relations between daily loss and maximum wind speed, spanning more than 4 orders of magnitude. The estimated power law exponents for 439 German districts typically range from 8 to 11 and are considerably larger than previously published exponents. In addition, we find correlations among the parameters and socio-demographic data which we employ in a simplified parametrization of the damage function with just 2 independent parameters. The Monte Carlo method is used to generate loss estimates and confidence bounds of daily and annual storm damages for Germany. Our approach reproduces the annual progression of winter storm losses and enables to estimate daily losses over several orders of magnitude.