Berlin 2012 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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UP: Fachverband Umweltphysik

UP 12: Climate - Modelling, joint session with jDPG

UP 12.4: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 29. März 2012, 11:45–12:00, HFT-FT 131

Calculation of climate trend functions from local time series using a Monte-Carlo-enhanced process — •Dieter Ihrig — FH Südwestfalen, Iserlohn, Germany

Most of the scientific community accepts the fact that there is a temperature increase since pre-industrial time looking to the yearly mean temperature. But not overall the world the yearly mean temperature is clearly increasing. In Germany for example the yearly mean temperature is decreasing during the last 3 years. It is not really helpful to calculate a trend function as a straight line over few years. To understand the climate system and climate models it will be helpful to know the temperature trends in the sens of new time series depending on the locality or at least to latitude. A method to extract trends from time series using a Monte-Carlo-enhanced filtering process was presented 2008 in Darmstadt. The performance of the method will be demonstrated using simulated climate trend functions. The method will be applied at real climate series (1881 to 2011) of 40 stations. The calculations are made for yearly mean temperature and 12 monthly mean temperature. The results in temperature trends are compared with respect to the latitude. Using the temperature trend the change of net radiation energy input is calculated and discussed with respect to the latitude.