Regensburg 2013 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik

DY 33: Poster II

DY 33.42: Poster

Donnerstag, 14. März 2013, 17:00–19:00, Poster C

Contemplating coincidences: Rigorous testing for synchrony between time series of discrete events — Jonathan F. Donges^1,2, •Reik V. Donner¹, Katharina Kohl^1,3, and Jürgen Kurths^1,2 — ¹Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Germany — ²Department of Physics, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany — ³Department of Mathematics, Heinrich Heine University of Düsseldorf, Germany

We present a novel approach to rigorous statistical testing for synchrony between two time series of discrete events. For uncorrelated events, the distribution of the test statistics can be analytically derived under the assumption of rare events. The limits of this analytical approximation are explored by numerical simulations. Subsequently, necessary corrections for correlated events are numerically derived for both short- and long-term correlations. Relationships with existing concepts such as event synchronization are discussed. Finally, the proposed approach is applied to some real-world geoscientific example in order to distinguish signatures of synchrony from insignificant coincidences.