Regensburg 2013 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 24: Group Dynamics

SOE 24.6: Vortrag

Donnerstag, 14. März 2013, 17:00–17:15, H37

Ups and downs: how does the team strength of a soccer team vary with time? — •Andreas Heuer and Oliver Rubner — Institut für Physikalische Chemie, Corrensstr. 28/39, D-49149 Münster

The team strength of a soccer team can be defined in a straightforward manner [1,2]. Via some appropriate time series analysis of the German Bundesliga we characterize the temporal variations of the team strength. It is determined for very different time scales (match-to-match basis, intra-seasonal, inter-seasonal, 50 years of Bundesliga). Interestingly, during the course of a season the team strength just fluctuates around a team-specific but constant value. A sustainable variation of the team strength can only be detected during the summer break. However, even after many seasons dramatic long-time correlations remain present, in particular during more recent years. Good teams remain good and vice versa.

Based on this information it is checked whether knowledge of the current strength of a team as compared to its average strength during the season improves the prediction quality. Surprisingly, it turns out that due to the uncertainty of its estimation its consideration is irrelevant. In summary, the statistical description of the soccer Bundesliga is quite simple since the assumption of a constant season-specific team strength is already an excellent approximation.

[1] A. Heuer, C. Müller, O. Rubner, Europhys. Lett. 89, 38007 (2010).

[2] A. Heuer, "Der perfekte Tipp", Wiley-VCH (2012).