Regensburg 2013 – wissenschaftliches Programm
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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme
SOE 25: Poster session
SOE 25.9: Poster
Donnerstag, 14. März 2013, 17:15–19:00, Poster C
Modeling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases in Poland and Sweden — •Andrzej Jarynowski1,2 and Ana Serafimovic2 — 1Smoluchowski Institute, Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland — 2Stockholm University, Sweden
The aim of the project is to supplement the knowledge of the spread of sexually transmitted diseases in the first part of the project in Swidish and Polish society through computer simulations with the theoretical discussion about sexual, temporal network (who with whom, when and how often). The model has aggregated the most important paths of infection (the main heterosexual population, sex workers and men who have sex with men) for the most important pathogens. The main goal is the authoritative analysis of the costs and losses of potential epidemiological control strategies and identifies potential problems that health care will have to face in the future. In the second part, the purpose is to understand the structure of the network and the temporal aspects of sexual relationships of humans and the possibility of using this structure in the epidemiological control. Modeling the spread of sexually transmitted diseases in Poland contains: (1) Adjust various parameters of the epidemiology of pathogens based on medical reports from around the world; (2) Simulations of epidemiology of pathogens and associated diseases with control optimization problem in terms of medical and financial metrics. Constructed model describes the spread of pathogens and could indicate an effective tool in the fight against infectious diseases (vaccination, screaming of preventing programs). It would helped with verification of hypotheses on empirical analysis.