Regensburg 2013 – scientific programme

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SOE: Fachverband Physik sozio-ökonomischer Systeme

SOE 6: Economic Models

SOE 6.2: Talk

Monday, March 11, 2013, 15:15–15:30, H37

Sectoral Gross Domestic Product composition: a dynamical modelling approach — •Diego Rybski, Raphael Lutz, Michael Spies, Dominik E. Reusser, and Jürgen P. Kropp — Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14469 Potsdam, Germany

Exploring a simple system of differential equations we characterise the transfer of GDP shares -- i.e the partitioning into agrarian, industrial, and service sectors -- between the sectors in the course of economic development. The model fits for the majority of countries providing 4 country-specific parameters. Relating the agrarian with the industrial sector, a data collapse over all countries and all years supports the applicability of our approach. Depending on the parameter ranges, country development exhibits different transfer properties. Most countries follow 3 of 8 characteristic paths. The types are not random but show distinct geographic and development patterns.