Berlin 2014 – wissenschaftliches Programm

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AKE: Arbeitskreis Energie

AKE 14: System Aspekte und Modellierung

AKE 14.2: Vortrag

Dienstag, 18. März 2014, 17:45–18:00, DO24 Reuter Saal

Data Assimilation System KENDA and Weather Dependent Renewables — •Stefan Declair, Annika Schomburg, and Roland Potthast — Deutscher Wetterdienst, FE12 - Datenassimilation, Frankfurter Str. 135, D-63067 Offenbach

To predict the amount of power produced by weather dependent renewable energy sources is a demanding task for the transport system operators (TSOs) in terms of net stability and power supply safety. In the BMU funded project EWeLiNE, the German Weather Service and the Fraunhofer Institute for Wind and Energy Systems develop innovative weather- and power forecasting models for the grid integration of weather dependent renewables to strongly support the TSOs.

Due to the chaotic behavior of the atmosphere, data assimilation is a crucial part in numerical weather prediction (NWP) to correct model data towards the true atmospheric state. The kilometerscale ensemble data assimilation System KENDA consists of the non-hydrostatic and convection-resolved short-range NWP system COSMO-DE, together with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (LETKF) to take observational data into account and create a best-fit initial state for the subsequent NWP model integration.

In this presentation, the EWeLiNE project is introduced. Furthermore, the LETKF and its integration into a potentially operational system is explained. Additionally, the needs to successfully apply KENDA within the EWeLiNE project to improve the power prediction based on the weather forecast by assimilating power measurements are discussed.