Dresden 2014 – wissenschaftliches Programm
Bereiche | Tage | Auswahl | Suche | Aktualisierungen | Downloads | Hilfe
DY: Fachverband Dynamik und Statistische Physik
DY 28: Extreme Events
DY 28.7: Vortrag
Donnerstag, 3. April 2014, 11:15–11:30, ZEU 146
Mapping the dynamics of quantiles in climate change relevant observables — •Sandra Chapman1,2,3, David Stainforth4,1,5, and Nicholas Watkins2,4,1,6 — 1CFSA, Physics, Univ. of Warwick, UK — 2MPIPKS, Dresden, Germany — 3Mathematics and Statistics, UIT, Norway — 4LSE London, UK — 5Environmental Change Institute, Univ. of Oxford, UK — 6MCT, Open Univ., Milton Keynes, UK
Climate change poses challenges for decision makers across society, not just in preparing for the climate of the future but even when planning for the climate of the present day. When making climate sensitive decisions, policy makers and adaptation planners would benefit from information on local scales and for user-specific quantiles (e.g. the hottest/coldest 5% of days) and thresholds (e.g. days above 28 C), not just mean changes. Here, we translate observations of weather (daily records of temperature and precipitation) into observations of climate change, providing maps of the changing shape of climatic distributions. We have developed a simple deconstruction of how the difference between the cumulative density function of a weather observable from two different time periods can be assigned to the combination of natural statistical variability and/or the consequences of secular climate change; this also relates to the dynamics of return times. We will relate this to the dynamics of exceedence above a threshold.